Carlos Alcaraz: “ATP Rankings” Final Analysis of ATP Queen’s 2025, Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jiri Lehecka
Carlos Alcaraz: The Czech player faces the biggest final of his career, while the Spanish player dreams of starting the grass season in the best way. The head-to-head record is tied at one.
A high-caliber final awaits at the ATP Queen’s 2025. Carlos Alcaraz, the top favorite to win the tournament, will face an somewhat unexpected guest in the final, Jiri Lehecka, a Czech player ranked 30th in the ATP rankings. Both players arrive at the final in great form, but the Spaniard comes with the best winning streak of his career, fueled by his epic victory in one of the greatest Roland Garros finals in history. This achievement has given him an “extra boost,” as he puts it, to face the final against a competitor with whom he is currently tied one-to-one in their head-to-head.
The most anticipated final was between Carlos Alcaraz and Jack Draper. However, Jiri Lehecka emerged victorious in a tightly contested three-set match, denying the Briton the chance to defend his title and setting up a showdown with the current biggest challenge in tennis: a final against Alcaraz. The Spaniard has prior experience winning the ATP Queen’s, lifting the trophy in 2023 before his first Wimbledon triumph. After a 2024 defeat against Draper, he returns to the grass court in London aiming to secure the crown and make a strong bid for his third Wimbledon title.
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Two Previous Encounters, One at Queen’s
Jiri Lehecka is one of the rare players with a head-to-head record even with Alcaraz. Their most recent encounter took place at the ATP Doha earlier this year, where the Czech emerged victorious with a score of 6-3 3-6 6-4. Despite this, Alcaraz had just won the ATP Rotterdam, his first indoor title, and struggled to adapt to the Qatar Open surface. He did not showcase his best tennis, leading to a period of inconsistency on the court, with fluctuating levels of performance during matches.
Their other meeting dates back to Queen’s 2023, where Lehecka made his ATP circuit debut after a remarkable rise in 2021 and 2022. He was overwhelmed by Alcaraz’s dynamism on grass, resulting in a 6-2 6-3 loss. It is unlikely we will see a similar result this Sunday, as Lehecka now stands as a player to be reckoned with in the circuit.
Lehecka’s Weaknesses
At his best, the Czech player can be a significant threat to Alcaraz due to his preference for dictating points. He hits the ball deep and excels on fast surfaces. Having clinched two career titles on Australian fast courts, this aspect of his game is well established. However, he has not fully capitalized on his potential due to physical inconsistencies over the past year. In 2025, he has shown erratic form, suffering painful defeats in several matches where he was in control.
Starting with the return game could be a game-changer for Lehecka in this final. In recent months, he has lost close matches due to critical errors at crucial junctures, such as at 4-5 or when serving at 5-6 to avoid the loss. Despite his solid performances this week against Jack Draper, Jacob Fearnley, Gabriel Diallo, and Alex De Miñaur, it should not be overlooked that he has committed double faults or unforced errors in pivotal moments, particularly in Masters 1000 events.
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– Alcaraz, in Top Form
Alcaraz should not underestimate his opponent. He is currently on a 17-match winning streak, but he will face an opponent who thrives on taking control of points and asserting dominance. The key to the match will be the Spanish player’s service games, and if he can replicate his stellar performance against Bautista (15 aces), victory will likely be within reach. Throughout the week, he has defeated Adam Walton, Jaume Munar, Arthur Rinderknech, and Roberto Bautista, yet he must bring the same intensity to the final as he did in the semifinals to fully capitalize on the opportunity to lift the trophy at one of the circuit’s most prestigious tournaments.
Alcaraz will need to serve effectively and be proactive in dictating play, disrupting his opponent’s rhythm and preventing him from approaching the net, as Lehecka possesses a strong net game. Strategically utilizing his first-serve opportunities will be crucial, and he must take calculated risks on second serves to avoid falling prey to powerful returns that could allow Lehecka to seize control of the point.
Who will emerge victorious in the ATP Queen’s 2025? Check out the analysis of the final by José Morón and Diego Jiménez on the Puntodebreak YouTube channel by clicking on the video.
